As we begin the second week of July, markets remain on edge with political tension and economic data creating a mixed environment for FX participants. Although volatility has settled compared to June, there are still several catalysts that could drive sharp moves, especially in USD and EUR pairs. Read on to ensure you’re up to date with global foreign exchange insights.
GBP: Sideways for now, but all eyes on central bank rhetoricA quieter week in terms of UK economic data. No tier-1 releases are scheduled, so sterling will take its lead from broader USD movement and any emerging commentary from the new Labour government.
📉 GBP Impact: Without a data catalyst, GBP is likely to trade sideways. Expect ranges to hold unless there’s a decisive USD or EUR shift.
USD: CPI and Fed Minutes will set the toneThe dollar will be driven by key US data and policy insights this week.
📈 USD Impact: Lower inflation would back up the market’s pricing of a Fed cut by September. A sticky reading, however, could unwind recent USD softness. Wednesday is the deadline for renewing reciprocal tariffs (90-day pause), potentially triggering market shocks.
EUR: Fragile sentiment continues, Retail Sales kicks things offThe euro remains under pressure following recent weak data and political uncertainty across France.
📊 EUR Impact: Softer sales or cautious ECB rhetoric may weigh further on EUR, especially versus USD. Political calm in France is helping cap the downside for now.
Other G10 Currencies & Global ThemesIn this type of market, timing and structure matter. Here’s where forward thinking pays off:
At August Exchange, we help clients take the guesswork out of foreign exchange. Timing isn’t always top priority for our clients, nor controllable, but it can save thousands when managed proactively.
Did You Know?Zimbabwe once printed the world’s largest banknote, 100 trillion dollars, during its 2008 hyperinflation, but today you can buy one for just a few US dollars.
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